Forte G. Why Health Workforce Projections Are Worth Doing. AAMC Research and Action Institute. AAMC Website. Published online June 29, 2023. https://www.aamc.org/advocacy-policy/aamc-research-and-action-institute/why-health-workforce-projections-are-worth-doing
This paper from the AAMC Research and Action Institute examines the history of health workforce projections modeling in the United States, with a goal of assessing the validity of various approaches. While workforce projections modeling efforts can be accurate and have been effective in alerting policymakers and other stakeholders to possible future shortages of specific health professions and occupations, they suffer from several important deficits: (1) lack of data, (2) being stuck in workforce silos, and (3) inadequate distribution and location modeling. The paper will inform policymakers and researchers of these limitations and future work needed to improve the projections, including the need to move away from physician-focused modeling to more services-based models that integrate the contributions of health care workers beyond physicians.